On the Pattern and Attribution of Pan Evaporation over China (1951–2021)

Abstract

Abstract Pan evaporation (Epan) serves as a monitorable method for estimating potential evaporation, evapotranspiration, and reference crop evapotranspiration, providing crucial data and information for fields such as water resource management and agricultural irrigation. Based on the PenPan model, the monthly Epan was calculated over China during 1951–2021, resulting in an average R2 of 0.93 ± 0.045 and an RMSE of 21.48 ± 6.06 mm month−1. The trend of Epan over time was characterized by an initial increase before 1961, followed by a decrease from 1961 to 1993, and a subsequent increase from 1994 to 2021. However, the sustained duration and magnitude of the decreasing trend led to an overall decreasing trend in the long-term dataset. To better understand the drivers of Epan trends, the Epan process was decomposed into radiative and aerodynamic components. While radiation was found to be the dominant component, its trend remained relatively stable over time. In contrast, the aerodynamic component, although smaller in proportion, exhibited larger fluctuations and played a crucial role in the trend of Epan. The primary influencing factors of the aerodynamic component were found to be wind speed and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Wind speed and VPD jointly promoted Epan before 1961, and the significant decrease in wind speed from 1961 to 1993 led to a decrease in Epan. From 1994 to 2021, the increase in VPD was found to be the main driver of the observed increase in Epan. These results show the complex and dynamic nature of Epan and underscore the need for continued monitoring and in-depth analysis of its drivers. Significance Statement The primary objective of this study is to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and potential driving factors of pan evaporation in China based on constructing a comprehensive dataset of pan evaporation. This is important because pan evaporation is an important indicator of the water cycle, which is currently undergoing modifications and is expected to become more pronounced as the climate continues to warm. Our findings showed that the patterns of pan evaporation were characterized by its drivers. As the drivers are numerous and continuously changing under climate change, it is necessary to pay attention to the pattern and attribution of pan evaporation.