Upper Colorado River Streamflow Dependencies on Summertime Synoptic Circulations and Hydroclimate Variability

Author:

Johnson Zachary F.1ORCID,Stuivenvolt-Allen Jacob2,Mahan Hayden3,Meyer Jonathan D. D.45,Miksch Matthew46

Affiliation:

1. a Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, Michigan

2. b Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

3. c National Weather Service, Salt Lake City, Utah

4. d Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, Utah

5. e Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah

6. f Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, Davis, California

Abstract

Abstract The southwestern United States is highly sensitive to drought, prompting efforts to understand and predict its hydroclimate. Oftentimes, the emphasis is on wintertime precipitation variability, yet the southwestern United States exhibits a summertime monsoon where a significant portion of annual precipitation falls through daily convection activities manifested by a midtropospheric ridge of high pressure. Here, we examine synoptic patterns of the southwestern ridge through a k-means clustering analysis and assess how these synoptic patterns translate into streamflow changes in the upper Colorado River basin. A linear perspective suggests ∼17% of upper Colorado River discharge at the Lee’s Ferry, Arizona, gauge comes from summertime monsoon rains. The ridge of high pressure exhibits diversity in its intensity, structure, and position, inducing changes in moisture advection and precipitation. A ridge shifted north or east of its climatological center increases moisture and precipitation over the southwestern United States, while a ridge toward the south or northwest inhibits precipitation. A ridge east of its climatological center contributes to increased streamflow, whereas a ridge west or northwest of its climatological center decreases streamflow. Cooling in the central tropical Pacific and the Pacific meridional mode region favors an eastward shift of the ridge of high pressure corresponding to wet days. Eastern tropical Pacific warming favors a southward shift of the ridge corresponding to dry days. These results support an intermediate scale between climate forcing and summertime Colorado River discharge through changes in the intensity, structure, and position of the southwestern ridge of high pressure, integral to the U.S. Southwest hydroclimate.

Funder

Central Michigan University

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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