Affiliation:
1. Applied Physics Laboratory and Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, and Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
Abstract
Abstract
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a two-dimensional measure of classification performance. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a scalar measure gauging one facet of performance. In this short article, five idealized models are utilized to relate the shape of the ROC curve, and the area under it, to features of the underlying distribution of forecasts. This allows for an interpretation of the former in terms of the latter. The analysis is pedagogical in that many of the findings are already known in more general (and more realistic) settings; however, the simplicity of the models considered here allows for a clear exposition of the relation. For example, although in general there are many reasons for an asymmetric ROC curve, the models considered here clearly illustrate that an asymmetry in the ROC curve can be attributed to unequal widths of the distributions. Furthermore, it is shown that AUC discriminates well between “good” and “bad” models, but not between good models.
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Cited by
223 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献