An Elicitation of the Dynamic Nature of Water Vapor Feedback in Climate Change Using a 1D Model

Abstract

Abstract The concept of feedback has been used by several authors in the field of climate science to describe the behavior of models and to assess the importance of the different mechanisms at stake. Here, a simple 1D model of climate has been built to analyze the water vapor feedback. Beyond a static quantification of the water feedback, a more general formal definition of feedback gain based on the tangent linear system is introduced. This definition reintroduces the dynamical aspect of the system response to perturbation from Bode's original concept. In the model here, it is found that, even though the water vapor static gain proves consistent with results from GCMs, it turns out to be negative for time scales below 4 yr and positive only for longer time scales. These results suggest two conclusions: (i) that the water vapor feedback may be fully active only in response to long-lived perturbations; and (ii) that the water vapor feedback could reduce the natural variability due to tropospheric temperature perturbations over short time scales, while enhancing it over longer time scales. This second conclusion would be consistent with studies investigating the influence of air–sea coupling on variability on different time scales.