Sensitivity of Idealized Hurricane Intensity and Structures under Varying Background Flows and Initial Vortex Intensities to Different Vertical Resolutions in HWRF

Abstract

Abstract A series of 5-day numerical simulations of idealized hurricane vortices under the influence of different background flows is performed by varying vertical grid resolution (VGR) in different portions of the atmosphere with the operational version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model in order to study the sensitivity of hurricane intensity forecasts to different distributions of VGR. Increasing VGR from 21 to 43 levels produces stronger hurricanes, whereas increasing it further to 64 levels does not intensify the storms further, but intensity fluctuations are much reduced. Moreover, increasing the lower-level VGRs generates stronger storms, but the opposite is true for increased upper-level VGRs. On average, adding mean flow increases intensity fluctuations and variability (between the strongest and weakest hurricanes), whereas adding vertical wind shear (VWS) delays hurricane intensification and then causes more rapid growth in intensity variability. The stronger the VWS, the larger intensity variability and bifurcation rate occur at later stages. These intensity differences are found to be closely related to inner-core structural changes, and they are attributable to how much latent heat could be released in higher-VGR layers, followed by how much moisture content in nearby layers is converged. Hurricane intensity with higher VGRs is shown to be much less sensitive to varying background flows, and stronger hurricane vortices at the model initial time are less sensitive to the vertical distribution of VGR; the opposite is true for relatively uniform VGRs or weaker hurricane vortices. Results reveal that higher VGRs with a near-parabolic or Ω shape tend to produce smoother intensity variations and more typical inner-core structures.