A Possible Hysteresis in the Arctic Ocean due to Release of Subsurface Heat during Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract

Abstract The Arctic Ocean is characterized by an ice-covered layer of cold and relatively fresh water above layers of warmer and saltier water. It is estimated that enough heat is stored in these deeper layers to melt all the Arctic sea ice many times over, but they are isolated from the surface by a stable halocline. Current vertical mixing rates across the Arctic Ocean halocline are small, due in part to sea ice reducing wind–ocean momentum transfer and damping internal waves. However, recent observational studies have argued that sea ice retreat results in enhanced mixing. This could create a positive feedback whereby increased vertical mixing due to sea ice retreat causes the previously isolated subsurface heat to melt more sea ice. Here, we use an idealized climate model to investigate the impacts of such a feedback. We find that an abrupt “tipping point” can occur under global warming, with an associated hysteresis window bounded by saddle-node bifurcations. We show that the presence and magnitude of the hysteresis are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and the hysteresis occurs for only a limited range of parameters. During the critical transition at the bifurcation point, we find that only a small percentage of the heat stored in the deep layer is released, although this is still enough to lead to substantial sea ice melt. Furthermore, no clear relationship is apparent between this change in heat storage and the level of hysteresis when the parameters are varied.