Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks in CMIP5 Models: Statistical Assessment Using a Model-Independent Detection and Tracking Scheme

Abstract

Abstract Past studies have shown that tropical cyclone (TC) projection results can be sensitive to different types of TC tracking schemes, and that the relative adjustments of detection criteria to accommodate different models may not necessarily provide a consistent platform for comparison of projection results. Here, future climate projections of TC activity in the western North Pacific basin (WNP, defined from 0°–50°N and 100°E–180°) are assessed with a model-independent detection and tracking scheme. This scheme is applied to models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) forced under the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. TC tracks from the observed records and independent models are analyzed simultaneously with a curve-clustering algorithm, allowing observed and model tracks to be projected onto the same set of clusters (k = 9). Four of the nine clusters were projected to undergo significant changes in TC frequency. Straight-moving TCs in the South China Sea were projected to significantly decrease. Projected increases in TC frequency were found poleward of 20°N and east of 160°E, consistent with changes in ascending motion, as well as vertical wind shear and relative humidity respectively. Projections of TC track exposure indicated significant reductions for southern China and the Philippines and significant increases for the Korean peninsula and Japan, although very few model TCs reached the latter subtropical regions in comparison to the observations. The use of a fundamentally different detection methodology that overcomes the detector/tracker bias gives increased certainty to projections as best as low-resolution simulations can offer.