Salient Differences in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific between 1998 and 2016

Author:

Zhan Ruifen1,Wang Yuqing2,Liu Qinyu3

Affiliation:

1. Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China, and International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

2. International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

3. Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Cooperation and Innovation Center for Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China

Abstract

Previous studies have suggested that tropical cyclone (TC) seasons over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the decaying years of El Niño events are generally less active than normal. The two strongest El Niño events on record were 1997/98 and 2015/16, but TC activities over the WNP displayed a sharp contrast between the decaying years of the two events. In 1998, consistent with previous studies, the WNP witnessed an extremely quiet season with no TC genesis in the preseason (January–June) and with only 10 named TCs observed in the typhoon season (July–October), making 1998 the most inactive season in the basin on record. In 2016, no TC formed in the preseason, similar to 1998; however, the basin became remarkably active in the typhoon season with above-normal named TCs observed. Further analyses indicate that the absence of TCs in the preseason in both 1998 and 2016 and the less active typhoon season in 1998 were attributed to the strong western Pacific anomalous anticyclone associated with the super El Niño events. However, the pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific in 2016 showed features distinct from that in 1998. During July–August, the extremely positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) triggered an anomalous cyclonic circulation and negative vertical wind shear over the WNP, favorable for TC geneses, while during September–October, the combined effect of the equatorial western Pacific warming and the weak La Niña event enhanced TC geneses over the WNP.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

JAMESTEC

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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