Regional Influences of Natural External Forcings on the Transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age

Abstract

Abstract Reconstructions of historical climate changes indicate that surface air temperatures decreased over the preindustrial last millennium. Conflicting explanations have been proposed for the cause of the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) in the early part of the last millennium to the Little Ice Age (LIA) near its end. The possible causes include volcanic emissions, total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, greenhouse gas concentration fluctuations, and orbital forcing variations. In the present paper, it is demonstrated that all of these climate forcings contribute significantly to simulated surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration changes over this period. On the other hand, simulated ocean heat content appears to respond significantly only to volcanic and TSI variations. In model simulations at T85 spectral resolution, TSI reductions and volcanic emissions together generate significant increases in sea ice extent in the Barents Sea, which is found to be responsible for most of the temperature reductions over northwestern Europe. TSI appears less important to Arctic sea ice and SAT changes in simulations at T42 spectral resolution, which are weaker than at T85 resolution. Such resolution dependence is attributed to differences in background conditions in the responses to these external climate forcings. Nonlinearities in the forcing responses and sensitivities to background conditions challenge the assumption that sensitivity tests for given forcings can be run independently. Additionally, it is demonstrated that an ensemble of model simulations is required to isolate forcing responses even over a period as long as the last millennium.