Climate System Responses to a Common Emission Budget of Carbon Dioxide

Abstract

Abstract Global warming as quantified by surface air temperature has been shown to be approximately linearly related to cumulative emissions of CO2. Here, a coupled state-of-the-art Earth system model with an interactive carbon cycle (BNU-ESM) was used to investigate whether this proportionality extends to the complex Earth system model and to examine the climate system responses to different emission pathways with a common emission budget of man-made CO2. These new simulations show that, relative to the lower emissions earlier and higher emissions later (LH) scenario, the amount of carbon sequestration by the land and the ocean will be larger and Earth will experience earlier warming of climate under the higher emissions earlier and lower emissions later (HL) scenario. The processes within the atmosphere, land, and cryosphere, which are highly sensitive to climate, show a relatively linear relationship to cumulative CO2 emissions and will attain similar states under both scenarios, mainly because of the negative feedback between the radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. However, the processes with larger internal inertias depend on both the CO2 emissions scenarios and the emission budget, such as ocean warming and sea level rise.