The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4

Abstract

Abstract The impact that disappearing Arctic sea ice will have on the atmospheric circulation and weather variability remains uncertain. In this study, results are presented from a sea ice perturbation experiment using the coupled Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). By decreasing the albedo of the sea ice, the impact of an ice-free summertime Arctic on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system is isolated in an idealized but energetically self-consistent way. The multicentury equilibrium response is examined, as well as the transient response in an initial condition ensemble. The perturbation drives pronounced year-round sea ice thinning, Arctic warming, Arctic amplification, and moderate global warming. Even in the almost complete absence of summertime sea ice, the atmospheric general circulation response is very weak and the transient response is small compared to the internal variability. Surface temperature variability is reduced on all time scales over most of the middle and high latitudes with a 50% reduction in the standard deviation of temperature over the Arctic Ocean. The reduction is attributed to decreased temperature gradients and increased maritime influence once the sea ice melts. This reduced variability extends weakly into the variability of the midlatitude and free tropospheric geopotential height (less than 10% reduction in the standard deviation). Consistently, eddy geopotential height variability is found to decrease while geopotential isopleth meandering, which reflects Arctic amplified warming, increases moderately. The sign of these changes is consistent with recent observations, but the size of these changes is relatively small.