Attributing Observed SST Trends and Subcontinental Land Warming to Anthropogenic Forcing during 1979–2005

Abstract

Abstract Attribution studies conclude that it is extremely likely that most observed global- and continental-scale surface air temperature (SAT) warming since 1950 was caused by anthropogenic forcing, but some difficulties and uncertainties remain in attribution of warming in subcontinental regions and at time scales less than 50 years. This study uses global observations and CMIP5 simulations with various forcings, covering 1979–2005, and control runs to develop confidence intervals, to attribute regional trends of SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) to natural and anthropogenic causes. Observations show warming, significantly different from natural variations at the 95% confidence level, over one-third of all grid boxes, and averaged over 15 of 21 subcontinental regions and 6 of 10 ocean basins. Coupled simulations forced with all forcing factors, or greenhouse gases only, reproduce observed SST and SAT patterns. Uncoupled AMIP-like atmosphere-only (prescribed SST and atmospheric radiative forcing) simulations reproduce observed SAT patterns. All of these simulations produce consistent net downward longwave radiation patterns. Simulations with natural-only forcing simulate weak warming. Anthropogenic forcing effects are clearly detectable at the 5% significance level at global, hemispheric, and tropical scales and in nine ocean basins and 15 of 21 subcontinental land regions. Attribution results indicate that ocean warming during 1979–2005 for the globe and individual basins is well represented in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble mean historical simulations. While land warming may occur as an indirect response to oceanic warming, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to be the ultimate source of land warming in most subcontinental regions during 1979–2005.