Evaluation of WRF Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Spain: Present Climate (1970–99)

Abstract

Abstract The ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate precipitation over Spain is evaluated from a climatological point of view. The complex topography and the large rainfall variability make the Iberian Peninsula a particularly interesting region and permit assessment of model performance under very demanding conditions. Three high-resolution (10 km) simulations over the Iberian Peninsula have been completed spanning a 30-yr period (1970–99) and driven by different datasets: the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as “perfect boundary conditions” and two general circulation models (GCMs), the Max Planck Institute ECHAM5 model (ECHAM5/MPI) and the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). The daily precipitation observational grid Spain02 is employed to evaluate the model at varying time scales. Not only are the long-term means (annual, seasonal, and monthly) examined but also the high-order statistics (extreme events). The WRF provides valuable information on precipitation at high resolution and enhances local spatial distribution due to orographic features. Although substantial errors are still observed in terms of monthly precipitation, especially during the spring, the model is largely able to capture the various precipitation regimes. The major benefits of using WRF are related to the spatial distribution of rainfall and the simulation of extreme events, two facets of climate that can be barely explored with GCMs. This study shows that WRF can be a useful tool for generating high-resolution climate information for Spanish precipitation at spatial and temporal scales that are crucial for both the environment and human life.