Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies and Intraseasonal Oscillations Associated with Long-Lived Extreme Heat Events in South China

Abstract

Abstract South China experiences extreme heat (EH) most frequently in eastern China. This study specifically explores the large-scale circulation anomalies associated with long-lived EH events in south China. The results show that there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) and active (inactive) convection over south China (the western Pacific) before the EH onset; then, an anticyclone develops and moves northwestward and dominates over south China on the onset day. The anomalous anticyclone maintains its strength over south China and then diminishes and is replaced by another cyclone migrating from the western Pacific after the final day of the EH event. Consequently, the temperature increases over south China around the onset day and is anomalously warm for approximately 10 days on average and then decreases shortly thereafter. The fluctuating anomalies over south China and the western Pacific are intimately related to two intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) modes, namely, the 5–25- and 30–90-day oscillations, which originate from the tropical western Pacific and propagate northwestward. The 5–25-day oscillation is vital to triggering and terminating EH, accounting for approximately half of the original temperature and circulation anomaly transitions. The 30–90-day oscillation favors the persistent warming during EH events, accounting for approximately one-third of the original prolonged warming and anticyclonic anomaly. This result suggests that different ISO modes play crucial roles at different stages of the events. Moreover, a higher annual frequency of long-lived EH days in south China is associated with the transition phase from El Niño to La Niña. It is suggested that both medium-range and interannual forecasting of long-lived EH in south China are possible.