Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Gusts under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions over Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Hourly/daily wind gust simulation models and regression-based downscaling methods were developed to assess possible impacts of climate change on future hourly/daily wind gust events over the province of Ontario, Canada. Since the climate/weather validation process is critical, a formal model result verification process has been built into the analysis to ascertain whether the methods are suitable for future projections. The percentage of excellent and good simulations among all studied seven wind gust categories ranges from 94% to 100% and from 69% to 95%, respectively, for hourly and daily wind gusts, for both model development and validation. The modeled results indicate that frequencies of future hourly/daily wind gust events are projected to increase late this century over the study area under a changing climate. For example, across the study area, the annual mean frequency of future hourly wind gust events ≥28, ≥40, and ≥70 km h−1 for the period 2081–2100 derived from the ensemble of downscaled eight-GCM A2 simulations is projected to be about 10%–15%, 10%–20%, and 20%–40% greater than the observed average during the period 1994–2007, respectively. The corresponding percentage increase for future daily wind gust events is projected to be <10%, ~10%, and 15%–25%. Inter-GCM-model and interscenario uncertainties of future wind gust projections were quantitatively assessed. On average, projected percentage increases in frequencies of future hourly/daily wind gust events ≥28 and ≥40 km h−1 are about 90%–100% and 60%–80% greater than inter-GCM-model–interscenario uncertainties, respectively. For wind gust events ≥70 km h−1, the corresponding projected percentage increases are about 25%–35% greater than the interscenario uncertainties and are generally similar to inter-GCM-model uncertainties.