Oscillating Relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO

Abstract

Abstract This work investigates the interdecadal variations of the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), further explores possible mechanisms, and finally considers a recent switch in the ENSO–EAWM relationship. The 23-yr sliding correlation between the Niño-3.4 index and the EAWM index reveals an obvious low-frequency oscillation with a period of about 50 yr in the ENSO–EAWM relationship. Warm ENSO events during high-correlation periods are associated with an unusually weak East Asian trough, a positive phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), significant southerly wind anomalies along coastal East Asia, and warmer East Asian continent and adjacent oceans. However, there are no robust and significant anomalies in the EAWM-related circulation during low-correlation periods. Because of the southeastward shift of the Walker circulation, the area of anomalously high pressure in the western Pacific retreats south of 25°N, confining it to the region of the Philippine Sea. In this sense, the Pacific–East Asian teleconnection is not well established. Consequently, ENSO’s impact on the EAWM is suppressed. Additionally, the low-frequency oscillation of the ENSO–EAWM relationship might be attributable to the combined effect of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation owing to their modulation on the establishment of the NPO teleconnection. The observation of two full cycles of the ENSO–EAWM relationship, a transition to negative PDO in the early 2000s and an enhancement of the Walker circulation in the late 1990s, suggests a recovery of the ENSO–EAWM relationship.