Development of Anomalous Temperature Regimes over the Southeastern United States: Synoptic Behavior and Role of Low-Frequency Modes

Abstract

Abstract During winter, anomalous temperature regimes (ATRs), which include cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs), have important impacts in the southeastern United States. This study provides a synoptic–dynamic characterization of ATRs in the southeastern United States from 1949 to 2011 through composite time-evolution analyses. Events are categorized by the sign and amplitude of relevant low-frequency modes. During CAO (WW) onset, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies are observed in the upper troposphere over the Southeast with oppositely signed anomalies in the lower troposphere over the central United States. In most cases, there is a surface east–west geopotential height anomaly dipole, with anomalous northerly (CAO) or southerly (WW) flow into the Southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. Companion potential vorticity anomaly analyses reveal prominent features in the mid- to upper troposphere consistent with the coincident geopotential height anomaly patterns. Ultimately, synoptic-scale disturbances are found to serve as dynamic triggers for ATR events, while low-frequency modes provide a favorable environment for ATR onset. The results provide a qualitative indication of the role of low-frequency modes in ATR onset. In WW (CAO) events influenced by low-frequency modes, the North American geopotential height anomaly pattern arises in part as a downstream (regional) manifestation of the negative Pacific–North American pattern (North Atlantic Oscillation). Interestingly, the North Atlantic Oscillation contributes to both CAO onset and demise. Thus, these results indicate that low-frequency modes also affect event duration (CAOs). One general distinction found for ATRs is that CAOs involve substantial airmass transport while WW formation is more regional in nature.