Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System

Abstract

Abstract The large and fast-flowing Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary is affected by extreme storm surges (above ±2 m with respect to tidal datum), which have large impacts on the millions of inhabitants and for navigation. In this work the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO) numerical model was modified and implemented as a set of regional one-way nested 2D applications for the hindcast/forecast of water level in the RdP. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was carried out to determine the impact on the numerical solutions of the uncertainties in the different modeling parameter forcings and to highlight the need for the construction of a modeling system that provides meaningful information to the potential users. The SA included the friction coefficients, the wind speed and direction, the atmospheric surface pressure, and the continental discharge. Water level is most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind forcing; even small changes in this input can create large errors in the water level forecast/hindcast. Forcing with different analyses’ wind products yielded differences of up to 50% in the peak water levels. Results also showed that the modeling system requires a reasonable adjustment of the bottom friction parameters; that it is important to include the atmospheric surface pressure forcing; and that, from the point of view of water level forecast, it is not necessary to couple a hydrological model in spite of the enormous runoff of this estuary. Given the strong sensitivity to errors in the wind forcing, we believe it is important to provide estimates of uncertainty together with hindcast/forecast water level for these predictions to be of greatest quality and practical applicability.