Affiliation:
1. School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Abstract
Abstract
This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An example with precipitation forecasts illustrates how these estimates support comparisons of the performances of competing forecasting systems with possibly different ensemble sizes.
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
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