Weather Effects on the Spread of COVID-19: Characteristics and Critical Analysis of the First and Second Years of Scientific Research

Abstract

Abstract Numerous studies were published quickly in 2020 and 2021 to understand the effect of weather variables on the spread of COVID-19. We examined 289 peer-reviewed empirical publications, focusing on their characteristics and a critical analysis of their quality. Of the 289 publications, 280 (97%) reported an association between one or more weather variables and the transmission of COVID-19. Of those 289 publications, 109 publications (38%) did not consider any time lag between suspected infections and reporting of the COVID-19 cases, meaning that they examined the weather on the day when the COVID-19 case was reported, rather than the day when the infection occurred. The publications used data from as few as 7 days, with an average of 123 days. Most of these data were collected early in the pandemic when the temperatures were rising as the seasons transitioned from winter to summer in the Northern Hemisphere, making it difficult to determine the subtle effects of the weather on spread. Furthermore, the average time between submission and acceptance was 85 days, but the 10 most-cited publications—all in Science of the Total Environment—were accepted within 10 days of submission, with three accepted on the submission date. Twenty-four review articles were published in 2020 and 2021, with few providing critical reflection on strengths and weaknesses of the literature. Our analysis revealed errors in the publications that were not identified or rectified by corrigenda, comment–reply exchanges, or retractions. This article concludes with recommendations on publishing during future pandemics, as well as best practices for publishing research on weather and COVID-19 transmission.