Was Franz Baur’s Infamous Long-Range Weather Forecast for the Winter of 1941/42 on the Eastern Front Really Wrong?

Abstract

Abstract In October 1941, Nazi Germany’s High Command realized that the war against the Soviet Union could not be ended before winter. The German professor Franz Baur prepared a long-range weather forecast for the winter of 1941/42. Baur never revealed anything about this forecast. However, according to an article published 10 years after Baur’s death, Baur predicted that the winter of 1941/42 would be normal or milder than normal, primarily based on the main argument that the previous two winters had been very severe and never in climatic history had more than two severe winters occurred in a row. The winter ended up being one of the worst. Today, Baur’s prognoses from wartime are public. In this article, it is shown that the previous description of Baur’s prognosis for the winter of 1941/42 is incorrect. Baur had a problematic relationship with his colleagues, so it is possible that the story of his prognosis is incorrect due to personal and professional contradictions. Baur’s postulated prognosis for the winter of 1941/42 destroyed his reputation. Based on the original prognoses from wartime and Baur’s scientific and personal history, this article shows that this judgment was too harsh and unfair.