The Uncoordinated Giant II: Why U.S. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Is Still Lagging and How to Fix It

Abstract

Abstract U.S. numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both economic reasons and the protection of life and property. Unfortunately, the nation’s global model prediction skill substantially lags the performance of leading international NWP centers, with problems extending to regional prediction. This paper reviews the history of U.S. activities in NWP, describes why U.S. weather prediction is not fulfilling its potential, and proposes actions that could restore U.S NWP to world leadership. Key suggestions include the creation of a U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction Center, better coordination of the efforts of the research and operational NWP communities, and increasing NOAA computational resources by at least tenfold.