Improving Arctic Weather and Seasonal Climate Prediction: Recommendations for Future Forecast Systems Evolution from the European Project APPLICATE

Author:

Ortega Pablo1,Blockley Edward W.2,Køltzow Morten3,Massonnet François4,Sandu Irina5,Svensson Gunilla6,Acosta Navarro Juan C.1,Arduini Gabriele5,Batté Lauriane7,Bazile Eric7,Chevallier Matthieu8,Cruz-García Rubén1,Day Jonathan J.5,Fichefet Thierry4,Flocco Daniela9,Gupta Mukesh4,Hartung Kerstin6,Hawkins Ed9,Hinrichs Claudia10,Magnusson Linus5,Moreno-Chamarro Eduardo1,Pérez-Montero Sergio1,Ponsoni Leandro4,Semmler Tido10,Smith Doug2,Sterlin Jean4,Tjernström Michael6,Välisuo Ilona7,Jung Thomas11

Affiliation:

1. Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain;

2. Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom;

3. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway;

4. Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;

5. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom;

6. Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden;

7. CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France;

8. Météo-France, Toulouse, France;

9. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom;

10. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany;

11. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, and Department of Physics and Electrical Engineering, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Abstract

Abstract The Arctic environment is changing, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and ecosystems, and impacting its socio-economic landscape. In this context, weather and climate prediction systems can be powerful tools to support strategic planning and decision-making at different time horizons. This article presents several success stories from the H2020 project APPLICATE on how to advance Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction, synthesizing the key lessons learned throughout the project and providing recommendations for future model and forecast system development.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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