An Objective Analysis of Tornado Risk in the United States

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, an objective analysis of spatial tornado risk in the United States is performed, using a somewhat different dataset than in some previous tornado climatologies. The focus is on significant tornadoes because their reporting frequency has remained fairly stable for several decades. Also, data before 1973 are excluded, since those tornadoes were rated after the fact and were often overrated. Tornado pathlength within the vicinity of a grid point is used to show tornado risk, as opposed to tornado days or the total number of reported tornadoes. The possibility that many tornadoes in the Great Plains were underrated due to the lack of damage indicators, causing a low bias in the number of significant tornadoes there, is mostly discounted through several analyses. The kernel density analysis of 1973–2011 significant tornadoes performed herein shows that the area of highest risk for tornadoes in the United States extends roughly from Oklahoma to Tennessee and northwestern Georgia, with the highest risk in the southeastern United States, from central Arkansas across most of Mississippi and northern Alabama.