RBF Neural Networks Combined with Principal Component Analysis Applied to Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for a Reservoir Watershed during Typhoon Periods

Abstract

Abstract The forecast of precipitations during typhoons has received much attention in recent years. It is important in meteorology and atmospheric sciences. Hence, the study on precipitation nowcast during typhoons is of great significance to operators of a reservoir system. This study developed an improved neural network that combines the principal component analysis (PCA) technique and the radial basis function (RBF) network. The developed methodology was employed to establish the quantitative precipitation forecast model for the watershed of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The results obtained from RBF, multiple linear regression (MLR), PCA–RBF, and PCA–MLR models included the forecasts of L-ahead (L = 1, 3, 6) hourly accumulated precipitations. The deducted prediction results were compared in terms of four measures [mean absolute error (MAE), RMSE, coefficient of correlation (CC), and coefficient of efficiency (CE)] and four skill scores [percentage error (PE), area-weighted error score (AWES), bias score (BIAS), and equitable threat score (ETS)]. The results showed that predictions obtained using RBF and PCA–RBF were better than those produced by MLR and PCA–MLR. Although both RBF and PCA–RBF can provide good results on average, the network architecture and the learning speed of the PCA–RBF network are superior to those of the simple RBF network. This is because PCA technique could greatly reduce the input parameters and simplify concurrently the network structure. Consequently, the PCA–RBF neural networks can be regarded as a reliable model for predicting precipitation during typhoons.