Isolating the Temperature Feedback Loop and Its Effects on Surface Temperature

Abstract

Abstract Climate feedback processes are known to substantially amplify the surface warming response to an increase of greenhouse gases. When the forcing and feedbacks modify the temperature response they trigger temperature feedback loops that amplify the direct temperature changes due to the forcing and nontemperature feedbacks through the thermal–radiative coupling between the atmosphere and surface. This study introduces a new feedback-response analysis method that can isolate and quantify the effects of the temperature feedback loops of individual processes on surface temperature from their corresponding direct surface temperature responses. The authors analyze a 1% yr−1 increase of CO2 simulation of the NCAR CCSM4 at the time of CO2 doubling to illustrate the new method. The Planck sensitivity parameter, which indicates colder regions experience stronger surface temperature responses given the same change in surface energy flux, is the inherent factor that leads to polar warming amplification (PWA). This effect explains the PWA in the Antarctic, while the direct temperature response to the albedo and cloud feedbacks further explains the greater PWA of the Arctic. Temperature feedback loops, particularly the one associated with the albedo feedback, further amplify the Arctic surface warming relative to the tropics. In the tropics, temperature feedback loops associated with the CO2 forcing and water vapor feedback cause most of the surface warming. Overall, the temperature feedback is responsible for most of the surface warming globally, accounting for nearly 76% of the global-mean surface warming. This is 3 times larger than the next largest warming contribution, indicating that the temperature feedback loop is the preeminent contributor to the surface warming.