An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific

Published:2005-08-01 Issue:4 Volume:20 Page:688-699
ISSN:1520-0434
Container-title:Weather and Forecasting
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Knaff John A.¹,Sampson Charles R.²,DeMaria Mark³

Affiliation:

1. Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

2. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

3. NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, Colorado

Abstract

Abstract The current version of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) used operationally at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to provide 12-hourly tropical cyclone intensity guidance through day 5 is documented. STIPS is a multiple linear regression model. It was developed using a “perfect prog” assumption and has a statistical–dynamical framework, which utilizes environmental information obtained from Navy Operational Global Analysis and Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and the JTWC historical best track for development. NOGAPS forecast fields are used in real time. A separate version of the model (decay-STIPS) is produced that accounts for the effects of landfall by using an empirical inland decay model. Despite their simplicity, STIPS and decay-STIPS produce skillful intensity forecasts through 4 days, based on a 48-storm verification (July 2003–October 2004). Details of this model’s development and operational performance are presented.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Link

http://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article-pdf/20/4/688/4637168/waf863_1.pdf

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