Nonlocal Controls on Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Trajectory-Based Genesis Potential Index

Author:

Meng Lingwei1ORCID,Garner Stephen T.2

Affiliation:

1. a Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

2. b NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is initiated by convective precursors or “seeds” and influenced by environmental conditions along the seed-to-TC trajectories. Genesis potential indices (GPIs) provide a simple way to evaluate TC genesis likelihood from environmental conditions but have two limitations that may introduce bias. First, the globally fixed GPIs fail to represent interbasin differences in the relationship between environments and genesis. Second, existing GPIs are only functions of local environmental conditions, whereas nonlocal factors may have a significant impact. We address the first limitation by constructing basin- and time-scale-specific GPIs (local-GPIs) over the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and North Atlantic (NA) using Poisson regression. A sequential feature selection (SFS) algorithm identifies vertical wind shear and a heating condition as leading factors controlling TC genesis in the ENP and the NA, respectively. However, only a slight improvement in performance is achieved, motivating us to tackle the second limitation with a novel trajectory-based GPI (traj-GPI). We merge adjacent nonlocal environments into each grid point based on observed seed trajectory densities. The seed activity, driven mainly by upward motion, and the transition to TCs, controlled primarily by vertical wind shear or heating conditions, are captured simultaneously in the traj-GPI, yielding a better performance than the original GPIs. This study illustrates the importance of seed activity in modeling TC genesis and identifies key environmental factors that influence the process of TC genesis at different stages. Significance Statement The genesis potential index (GPI) is an effective tool for modeling the likelihood of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis for a given time and location. This study reveals that existing GPIs are primarily biased by a lack of information about nonlocal TC seed activity, since they are based only on local large-scale environmental variables. According to our study, upward motion and vertical wind shear are the most influential environmental factors in seed genesis and the transition from seed to TC, respectively. Based on the observed seed trajectories, we build trajectory-based GPIs that include the information from seed activity. Spatiotemporal performances of TC genesis are significantly improved over the original GPIs.

Funder

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Reference65 articles.

1. Akaike, H., 1973: Information theory and the maximum likelihood principle. Second Int. Symp. on Information Theory, Tsahkadsor, Armenia, 267–281.

2. Outsize influence of Central American orography on global climate;Baldwin, J. W.,2021

3. Investigating the use of a genesis potential index for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin;Bruyère, C. L.,2012

4. Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis;Camargo, S. J.,2007a

5. Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models;Camargo, S. J.,2007b

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3