Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Hydroclimatological Summer Droughts in Norway

Abstract

Abstract This study examines the impact of climate change on droughts in Norway. A spatially distributed (1 × 1 km2) version of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) precipitation-runoff model was used to provide hydrological data for the analyses. Downscaled daily temperature and precipitation derived from two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models with two future emission scenarios were applied as input to the HBV model. The differences in hydroclimatological drought characteristics in the summer season between the periods 1961–90 and 2071–2100 were studied. The threshold level method was adopted to select drought events for both present and future climates. Changes in both the duration and spatial extent of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater droughts were identified. Despite small changes in future meteorological drought characteristics, substantial increases in hydrological drought duration and drought affected areas are expected, especially in the southern and northernmost parts of the country. Reduced summer precipitation is a major factor that affects changes in drought characteristics in the south while temperature increases play a more dominant role for the rest of the country.