Land Surface Feedbacks on Spring Precipitation in the Netherlands

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to investigate the sensitivity of precipitation to soil moisture and urban areas in the Netherlands. The average output of a 4-day event during 10–13 May 1999 for which the individual days had similar synoptical forcing is analyzed. Four simulations are conducted to test the impact of soil moisture changes on precipitation. A positive soil moisture–precipitation feedback is found, that is, wet (dry) soils increase (decrease) the amount of precipitation. Three additional experiments are executed, two in which urban areas in the Netherlands are expanded and one where urban areas are completely removed. Expansion of urban areas results in an increase of the sensible heat flux and a deeper planetary boundary layer, similar to reducing soil moisture. Expanding urban areas reduces precipitation over the Netherlands as a whole, but the local response is not clear. Within existing urban areas, mean and maximum temperature increases of 0.4 and 2 K, respectively, are found under an urban coverage scenario for 2040. The ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation (a measure of the soil moisture–precipitation feedback) in the urbanization experiments is only about one-third (23%) of that in the soil moisture experiments (67%). Triggering of precipitation, on the other hand, is relatively high in the urban expansion experiments. The effects of reduced moisture availability and enhanced triggering in the urban expansion experiments compensate each other, leading to the moderate reduction in precipitation.