Characteristics of Large-Scale Orographic Precipitation in a Linear Perspective

Abstract

Abstract Simulations of orographic precipitation over the low mountain ranges of southwestern Germany and eastern France with two different physics-based linear precipitation models are presented. Both models are based on 3D airflow dynamics from linear theory and consider advection of condensed water and leeside drying. Sensitivity studies for idealized conditions and a real case study show that the amount and spatial distribution of orographic precipitation is strongly controlled by characteristic time scales for cloud and hydrometeor advection and background precipitation due to large-scale lifting. These parameters are estimated by adjusting the model results on a 2.5-km grid to observed precipitation patterns for a sample of 40 representative orography-dominated stratiform events (24 h) during a calibration period (1971–80). In general, the best results in terms of lowest rmse and bias are obtained for characteristic time scales of 1600 s and background precipitation of 0.4 mm h−1. Model simulations of a sample of 84 events during an application period (1981–2000) with fixed parameters demonstrate that both models are able to reproduce quantitatively precipitation patterns obtained from observations and reanalyses from a numerical model [Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO)]. Combining model results with observation data shows that heavy precipitations over mountains are restricted to situations with strong atmospheric forcings in terms of synoptic-scale lifting, horizontal wind speed, and moisture content.