Effects of Serial Dependence and Large-Scale Tropospheric Circulation on Midlatitude North American Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Exchange

Abstract

Abstract Linear regression was used to relate modes of tropospheric circulation variability to estimates of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) measured at 14 midlatitude North American eddy covariance (EC) towers. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibited a north–south gradient in its effect on fluxes, with negative influence on fluxes at central and northeastern stations and positive influence on fluxes at southeastern stations. During spring, average values of GEP and ER within the northern “cold” sector decreased by 22 and 12 g C m−2 (18% and 11%), respectively, in response to a unit increase (+1 standard deviation) in the expansion coefficient of the NAO mode. Despite a northward advancement of the “warm” sector during summer, GEP and ER remained negatively correlated with the NAO at northern stations, decreasing on average by 48 and 30 g C m−2 (8% and 6%), respectively. During spring, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) reduced GEP and ER at central and northeastern stations on average by 20 and 7 g C m−2 (16% and 6%) and increased GEP and ER at southern and west coast stations on average by 53 and 49 g C m−2 (12% and 17%) in response to a unit increase in the NPO. This pattern persisted into summer, only shifted northward, with flux decreases of 19 and 24 g C m−2 (3% and 5%) at northern stations and increases of 72 and 82 g C m−2 (9% and 16%) at central stations. The direction of the flux response in each case was supported by synoptic conditions inferred from composite maps of North American circulation and gridded surface air temperature anomalies. The magnitude and timing of the relationships differed between stations and was attributed to differences in geographic location and plant functional type. Difficulty in the interpretation of significant correlations was attributed to the short sample length of typical EC records and unmodeled variability, including, for example, modulation by the NAO during high NPO. Despite these limitations, long-term monitoring EC stations show promise in characterizing the regional and ecosystem-specific carbon cycle response to low-frequency modes of tropospheric circulation variability and may play a critical role in validating ecosystem model responses to such phenomena.