Development of Skill by Students Enrolled in a Weather Forecasting Laboratory*

Abstract

Abstract Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for students in a weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997–2007. The objective of this study is to determine the rate at which senior-level undergraduate students develop proficiency at short-term (next day) weather forecasting. Separate analyses are carried out for different categories of forecast parameters. Time series of the average skill achieved over the course of the quarter are presented for the median and the best–worst two student forecasters each year. An overall improvement in student forecast skill occurs over roughly the first 6 weeks of the quarter, followed by minimal systematic changes. Negligible trends in average forecast skill have occurred over the past 10 yr. The correlation coefficient between the students’ overall forecast performance and test scores in ATMS 452 is about 0.4. The results are relevant to the design of effective instructional programs for weather forecasting.