Probability of Convectively Induced Turbulence Associated with Geostationary Satellite–Inferred Cloud-Top Cooling

Abstract

AbstractThe probability of turbulence in the region of identified cloud-top cooling (CTC) from a satellite-based algorithm is calculated. It is found that the overall turbulence probability is low, with only 3.93% of 738 Boeing 737s and 757s experiencing light or greater turbulence. Predicting the probability of turbulence is done using a Bayesian scheme. This prediction scheme relies on the CTC magnitude as well as the relationship between the CTC and aircraft. At higher CTC magnitudes [≤−16 K (15 min)−1], turbulence is more common, with the conditional probability of turbulence exceeding the conditional probability of no turbulence. Aircraft with flight levels that are less than 8000 ft (~2440 m) above the cloud height also have a higher conditional probability of turbulence than no turbulence. Overall, the Bayesian scheme is found to be more skillful when compared with use of climatological information alone.