Climate Risks of the Transition to a Renewable Energy Society: The Need for Extending the Research Agenda

Abstract

Abstract To reach the 1.5°–2° goal of the Paris Agreement, the speed of transition to a renewable energy society must increase significantly. Applying Perrow’s theory of societal risk, we argue that switching from a fossil-based energy system to a future 100% renewable energy system may increase climate risks. Reviewing policy and research literature, and interviewing key energy policy actors in Norway, we find that there is limited knowledge on this topic and that the knowledge that does exist suffers from several shortcomings. Climate risks are generally discussed by applying future climate to the current energy system and thus failing to consider climate vulnerabilities caused by the ongoing energy transition. Also, discussions are frequently limited to subsystem reflections as opposed to system reflections and mostly present supply-side perspectives as opposed to demand-side perspectives. Most of the policy actors conclude that a future 100% renewable energy system will mainly benefit from climate change and reduce rather than increase climate risks. A research agenda is proposed to gain a better understanding of how the ongoing energy transitions can affect climate risks, especially to address the potential that reducing the level of energy consumption, diversifying energy sources, and prioritizing short-traveled energy can have to reduce climate risk in high-consuming countries. Significance Statement Switching from a fossil-based to a mostly “climate driven” renewable energy system may increase climate risks, and rapid transitions may increase risks even more. Still, knowledge of such risks is limited and suffers from several shortcomings. Studies are generally applying future climate to current energy system conditions and thus failing to consider vulnerabilities caused by the ongoing transformation of the energy system. Studies so far are also often limited to analyzing only parts of the system and not the energy system as a whole, and they are aiming at the production side rather than the consumption side. Thus, they tend to conclude that the energy system will mainly benefit from climate change. To reduce climate risks, we claim the need to focus on energy consumption and short-traveled energy.