What Do I Know about Severe Weather? The Influence of Weather Knowledge on Protective Action Decisions

Abstract

Abstract Research has found that people who know the least about a topic are often very overconfident of their knowledge, while those who know the most often underestimate their knowledge. This finding, known as the Dunning–Kruger effect (DKE) has recently been shown to occur in knowledge of severe weather as well. The current study investigated whether being overconfident in one’s knowledge might translate into a tendency to make poorer sheltering decisions when faced with severe weather. Participants took two severe weather quizzes, one of perceived knowledge and one of objective knowledge. Participants also predicted their performance on both quizzes. The participants then saw four wireless emergency tornado warning alerts on a simulated smartphone screen, along with a tornado scenario, and then made two protective action decisions: one about immediately sheltering in place and the other the likelihood they would drive away. The results revealed that the participants did exhibit the DKE: those with the lowest levels of knowledge exhibited the most overconfidence while those with the highest levels of knowledge underestimated their performance. Also, in comparison with individuals with the most knowledge, those with the least knowledge were the most likely to state that they would not shelter immediately and that they would get in their car and drive away. Although more education is needed, the findings suggest a conundrum: those who know the least about severe weather, thinking they know a lot, are probably those individuals least likely to seek out additional education on the topic. Significance Statement Tornadoes are common in many states, and the National Weather Service issues tornado warnings in the hopes that individuals will take protective action. Previous research has found that people with low levels of knowledge (such as knowledge of severe weather) are often overconfident of their knowledge. This study explores whether those with low (as compared with high) severe weather knowledge make poorer decisions to a tornado warning. The findings show that those with the lowest knowledge were indeed overconfident and that they were less likely to shelter and more likely to drive away than those with high knowledge. The findings highlight that more severe weather education, although a worthy goal, might be difficult to implement if knowledge confidence is already high.