A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature*

Abstract

Abstract Recent global warming hiatus has received much attention; however, a robust and quantitative definition for the hiatus is still lacking. Recent studies by Scafetta, Wu et al., and Tung and Zhou showed that multidecadal variability (MDV) is responsible for the multidecadal accelerated warming and hiatuses in historical global-mean surface temperature (GMST) records, though MDV itself has not received sufficient attention thus far. Here, the authors introduce four key episodes in GMST evolution, according to different phases of the MDV extracted by the ensemble empirical-mode decomposition method from the ensemble HadCRUT4 monthly GMST time series. The “warming (cooling) hiatus” and “typical warming (cooling)” periods are defined as the 95% confidence intervals for the locations of local MDV maxima (minima) and of their derivatives, respectively. Since 1850, the warming hiatuses, cooling hiatuses, and typical warming have already occurred three times and the typical cooling has occurred twice. At present, the MDV is in its third warming-hiatus period, which started in 2012 and would last until 2017, followed by a 30-yr cooling episode, while the trend will sustain the current steady growth in the next 50 years. Their superposition presents steplike rising since 1850. It is currently ascending a new height and will stay there until the next warming phase of the MDV carries it higher.