A Climate Extremes Resilience Index for the Conterminous United States

Abstract

Abstract In recent decades, changes in precipitation, temperature, and air circulation patterns have led to increases in the occurrences of extreme weather events. These events can have devastating effects on communities causing destruction to property and croplands, as well as negative impacts on public health. As changes in the climate are projected to continue throughout the remainder of the twenty-first century, the ability for a community to plan for extreme weather events is essential to its survival. In this paper, we introduce a new index for examining the potential impacts of climate extremes on community resilience throughout the conterminous United States at the county level. We use an established disaster resilience index (baseline resilience indicators for communities) together with a revised version of the U.S. climate extremes index to create a combined measure of climate resilience—the climate extremes resilience index (CERI). To demonstrate the index, we test it on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, a 1000-yr weather event made 150 times as likely by climate change. To promote the use of the index, we also introduce a Google Earth Engine web app to calculate and map the CERI for the CONUS. By developing a web application for calculating the CERI, we expand the use of climate-resilience indices beyond theoretical applications. We anticipate that this tool and the CERI could be useful for policy makers to plan for climate-related disasters, as well as help the public with understanding and visualizing the impacts of extreme climatic events.