Continental-Scale Basin Water Storage Variation from Global and Dynamically Downscaled Atmospheric Water Budgets in Comparison with GRACE-Derived Observations

Abstract

Abstract Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has provided gravity-derived observations of variations in the terrestrial water storage. Because of the lack of suitable direct observations of large-scale water storage changes, a validation of the GRACE observations remains difficult. An approach that allows the evaluation of terrestrial water storage variations from GRACE by a comparison with those derived from aerologic water budgets using the atmospheric moisture flux divergence is presented. In addition to reanalysis products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, high-resolution regional atmospheric simulations were produced with the Weather Research and Forecast modeling system (WRF) and validated against globally gridded observational data of precipitation and 2-m temperature. The study encompasses six different climatic and hydrographic regions: the Amazon basin, the catchments of Lena and Yenisei, central Australia, the Sahara, the Chad depression, and the Niger. Atmospheric-related uncertainty bounds based on the range of the ensemble of estimated terrestrial water storage variations were computed using different configurations of the regional climate model WRF and different global reanalyses. Atmospheric-related uncertainty ranges with those originating from the GRACE products of GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, the Center for Space Research, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory were also compared. It is shown that dynamically downscaled atmospheric fields are able to add value to global reanalyses, depending on the geographical location of the considered catchments. Global and downscaled atmospheric water budgets are in reasonable agreement (r ≈ 0.7 − 0.9) with GRACE-derived terrestrial mass variations. However, atmospheric- and satellite-based approaches show shortcomings for regions with small storage change rates (<20–25 mm month−1).