The Contribution of Internal Variability to Asian Midlatitude Warming

Abstract

AbstractThe tropospheric warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes has been an important factor in regulating weather and climate since the twentieth century. Apart from anthropogenic forcing leading to the midlatitude warming, this study investigates the possible contribution of internal variability to Asian midlatitude warming and its role in East Asian circulation changes in boreal summer, using four reanalysis datasets in the past century and a set of 1800-yr preindustrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE). The surface and tropospheric warming in the Asian midlatitudes is associated with a strong upper-level geopotential height rise north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Linear trends of 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) confirm a dipole of an anomalous high north of the TP and an anomalous low over the Iranian Plateau in 1958–2017. The leading internal circulation mode bears a striking resemblance to the Z200 trend in the past 60 and 111 years, indicating that the long-term trend may be partially of internal origin. The Asian midlatitude warming is also found in preindustrial simulations of CESM-LE, further suggesting that internal variability explains at least part of the temperature change in the Asian midlatitudes, which is in a chain of wave trains along the NH midlatitudes. The Asian warming decreases the meridional gradient of geopotential height, resulting in the weakening of westerly winds over the TP and the TP thermal forcing. Thus, it is essential to consider the role of internal variability in shaping East Asian surface temperature and East Asian summer monsoon changes in the past decades.