Summer Russian Heat Waves Linked to Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in 2010 and 2016

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates dominant features of the atmospheric circulation evolution associated with extreme heat waves (HWs) in Russia during the summers of 2010 and 2016, respectively, and their possible association with Arctic sea ice loss. Results show that a region of Russia (20°–70°E, 45°–65°N) experienced a lasting 44-day HW event from 4 July to 16 August 2010 and a 26-day HW event from 2 to 27 August 2016. The associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are characterized by the summer Arctic cold anomaly in the mid- to low troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Ural Mountains. Simulation experiments forced by summer Arctic sea ice anomalies reproduce the major characteristics of observational associations. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that summer Arctic sea ice anomaly is conducive to the formation of the summer Arctic cold anomaly, which is often accompanied by the enhanced baroclinicity in most of the Arctic troposphere and increased and decreased meridional temperature gradient in the high and midlatitudes, respectively. Such a configuration strengthens westerly winds over most of the Arctic and weakens zonal westerly over the southern Ural Mountains. This anomalous zonal wind pattern establishes the background conditions for the sustained positive geopotential height anomaly in the mid- to low troposphere that dynamically facilitates the prevalence of Russian HW events. Moreover, when compared with 2016, the weaker meridional potential vorticity gradient anomaly in the summer of 2010 prolonged the persistence of Ural blocking, which may lead to longer HW events in Russia.