A Novel Mechanism for Extreme El Niño Events: Interactions between Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific and Sea Surface Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Abstract

Abstract This study presents a novel mechanism for the generation of extreme El Niño events by analyzing interactions between tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) in spring [March–May (MAM)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] and sea surface warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. It is suggested that anomalously strong TCs in the WNP in MAM and JJA are essential for the formation of extreme El Niño events. MAM TCs excite considerable westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and facilitate the generation of El Niño events in late spring. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific increases prominently during the following summer, which is due to the warm water carried by downwelling Kelvin waves induced by the anomalous westerlies in the western tropical Pacific associated with the WNP TCs, as well as the lessening cold water upwelling resulting from the deepening thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. The developing El Niño in turn contributes to the TC activities over the southeastern quadrant of the WNP in summer, characterized by a stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration. The resulting JJA TC-induced westerlies could further enhance the eastern tropical Pacific warm SST anomalies, and thus an extreme El Niño event tends to appear in the following autumn and winter. These physical processes are verified by several sets of atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiments. Significance Statement Tropical cyclone activity is one of the most destructive phenomena in the world. Extreme El Niño events can also cause devastating climate disasters. Understanding the relationship between these two events can help with disaster forecasting and prevention. This study finds that TC activity in the western North Pacific contributes to the appearance of extreme El Niño events. Abnormally active TC activity in spring can cause strong near-equatorial westerly wind anomalies, eastward transport of warm water from the western tropical Pacific, and a deepening ocean thermocline in the east, resulting in the earlier onset of El Niño events. Influenced by the El Niño event, the TC activity in summer is strengthened, which in turn continues to promote the surface warming of the central-eastern tropical Pacific, eventually resulting in extreme event occurrence.