“Beyond Weather Regimes”: Descriptors Monitoring Atmospheric Centers of Action. A case study for Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

AbstractThis paper introduces a set of descriptors applied to weather regimes, that allow for a detailed monitoring of the location and intensity of their atmospheric centers of action (e.g. troughs and ridges) and the gradients between them, when applicable. Descriptors are designed to document the effect of climate variability and change in modulating the character of daily weather regimes, rather than merely their occurrence statistics.As a case study, the methodology is applied to Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ), using ERA5 ensemble reanalysis data for the period 1979-2019. Here, we analyze teleconnections between the regimes and their descriptors, and large-scale climate variability. Results show a significant modulation of centers of action by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode, with a strong relationship identified with the latitude of atmospheric ridges. Significant associations with El Niño Southern Oscillation are also identified. Modes of large-scale variability have a stronger influence on the regimes’ intrinsic features than their occurrence. This demonstrates the usefulness of such descriptors, which help understand the relationship between mid-latitude transient perturbations and large-scale modes of climate variability.In future research, this methodological framework will be applied to analyze (i) low-frequency changes in weather regimes under climate change, in line with the southward shift of storm tracks, and (ii) regional-scale effects on the climate of ANZ, resulting from interaction with its topography.