An Energy Budget Framework to Understand Mechanisms of Land–Ocean Warming Contrast Induced by Increasing Greenhouse Gases. Part II: Transient Climate State

Abstract

Abstract We investigate the land–ocean warming contrast mechanisms, ϕ, defined as the land-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change divided by the ocean-mean SAT change, in a transient climate response (TCR) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) 1% per year CO2 increase experiments (1pctCO2). The energy budget framework devised in Part I is applied to 15 CMIP6 1pctCO2 simulations, and the climate response in year 140 when the CO2 concentration was quadrupled was compared with a near-equilibrium climate response (NEQ), defined as the last 30-yr mean in the abrupt CO2 quadrupling (abrupt4×CO2) experiments. It is shown that ϕ is larger in TCR than in NEQ by approximately 4%, although the difference is not statistically significant. In TCR, effective radiative forcing is large over land compared to the ocean, and this is the main contributor to ϕ as in NEQ. The time evolution of ϕ in 1pctCO2 can be reconstructed by means of the fast and slow components of climate response in abrupt4×CO2, indicating that the essential mechanism for the land–ocean warming contrast shown in Part I applies to TCR. Furthermore, our analyses reveal a compensation between land-to-ocean atmospheric energy transport that decreases ϕ and ocean heat uptake that increases ϕ. Regardless of the time scale of the response, these two processes are linked by the change in atmospheric circulation, leading to the small combined effect. As a result, the multimodel mean ϕ in 1pctCO2 is roughly time invariant at approximately 1.5 despite the continuous increase in CO2. Significance Statement The land–ocean warming contrast, which indicates large land surface warming compared to ocean surface warming in response to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, is a striking feature of human-induced global warming. This study focuses on temporal changes in the magnitude of the land–ocean warming contrast in transient climate change simulations and shows that the magnitude of the land–ocean warming contrast is nearly constant over time, maintaining a ratio of approximately 1.5, between land and ocean surface warming. This small temporal change is explained mainly by a compensation between land-to-ocean energy transport and ocean heat uptake, because both act in opposite directions to the land–ocean warming contrast.