Variability and Drivers of Ocean Temperature Extremes in a Warming Western Boundary Current

Abstract

Abstract Western boundary current (WBC) extensions such as the East Australian Current (EAC) southern extension are warming 2–3 times faster than the global average. However, there are nuances in the spatial and temporal variability of the warming that are not well resolved in climate models. In addition, the physical drivers of ocean heat content (OHC) extremes are not well understood. Here, using a high-resolution ocean model run for multiple decades, we show nonuniform warming trends in OHC in the EAC, with strong positive trends in the southern extension region (∼36°–38°S) but negative OHC trends equatorward of 33°S. The OHC variability in the EAC is associated with the formation of anticyclonic eddies, which is modulated by transport ∼880 km upstream (EAC mode) and the westward propagation of Rossby waves (eddy mode). Diagnosing the drivers of temperature extremes has implications for predictability both in the EAC and in WBCs more broadly, where ocean warming is already having considerable ecological impacts.