Intermodel Biases of the Western North Pacific Monsoon Trough in CMIP6 Models

Author:

Feng Xiaofang1,Wu Liguang12,Wang Chao3

Affiliation:

1. a Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

2. b Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System, Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute, Zhuhai, China

3. c Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) activity is often assessed by various downscaling approaches, statistical–dynamical frameworks, and high-resolution global climate models using the projected changes of environmental factors. Uncertainty in simulating and projecting TC-relevant, large-scale circulation is closely linked to the projection of TC activity in a warming climate. Based on the model output in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study examines the intermodel biases in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon trough (MT), which is one of the most important large-scale circulation systems for TC activity, especially TC formation. It is found that most CMIP6 models can successfully simulate the climatological mean structure of the MT, although considerable biases remain in its exact location and its simulated historical changes. The mean latitude of the simulated MT spreads between 10° and 20°N, with noticeable differences in its orientation. The multimodel ensemble mean indicates that the MT exhibits no significant long-term zonal and poleward shifts in the future scenarios, consistent with the projection in the selected models in which the simulated MT resembles the observed spatiotemporal characteristics of the counterpart. Further analysis suggests that the intermodel bias in the simulated MT location is closely related to the east–west contrast of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. More attention is required on improving the simulation of the basinwide SST distribution and its associated MT to reduce the uncertainty in predicting the future location of TC formation.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Shanghai Post-Doctoral Excellence Program

Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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