How Much Does Land–Atmosphere Coupling Influence Summertime Temperature Variability in the Western United States?

Abstract

Abstract Interannual fluctuations in average summertime temperatures across the western United States are captured by a leading empirical orthogonal function that explains over 50% of the total observed variance. In this paper, we explain the origins of this pattern of interannual temperature variability by examining soil moisture–temperature coupling that acts across seasons in observations and climate models. We find that a characteristic pattern of coupled temperature–soil moisture climate variability accounts for 34% of the total observed variance in summertime temperature across the region. This pattern is reproduced in state-of-the-art global climate models, where experiments that eliminate soil moisture variability reduce summertime average temperature variance by a factor of 3 on average. We use an idealized model of the coupled atmospheric boundary layer and underlying land surface to demonstrate that feedbacks between soil moisture, boundary layer relative humidity, and precipitation can explain the observed relations between springtime soil moisture and summertime temperature. Our results suggest that antecedent soil moisture conditions and subsequent land–atmosphere interactions play an important role in interannual summertime temperature variability in the western United States; soil moisture variations cause distal temperature anomalies and impart predictability at time scales longer than one season. Our results indicate that 40% of the observed warming trend across the western United States since 1981 has been driven by wintertime precipitation trends in the U.S. southwest. Significance Statement Year-to-year fluctuations in summertime temperatures have a large impact on drought, wildfire, and extreme heat across the Western United States. We find strong evidence that soil moisture deficits in the preceding spring may be the primary driver of higher-than-average summer temperatures in this region. Our results suggest that memory in the water cycle may lead to greater predictability in the climate system from season to season and that trends in southwest precipitation have exerted a considerable influence on observed warming over the past 40 years.