Why Is Climate Sensitivity for Solar Forcing Smaller than for an Equivalent CO2 Forcing?

Abstract

Abstract Previous studies have shown that climate sensitivity, defined as the global mean surface temperature change per unit radiative forcing, is smaller for solar radiative forcing compared to an equivalent CO2 radiative forcing. We investigate the causes for this difference using the NCAR CAM4 model. The contributions to the climate feedback parameter, which is inversely related to climate sensitivity, are estimated for water vapor, lapse rate, Planck, albedo, and cloud feedbacks using the radiative kernel technique. The total feedback estimated for CO2 and solar radiative forcing from our model simulations is −1.23 and −1.45 W m−2 K−1, respectively. We find that the difference in feedback between the two cases is primarily due to differences in lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedbacks, which together explain 65% of the difference in total feedback. The rest comes from Planck and albedo feedbacks. The differences in feedbacks arise mainly from differences in the horizontal (meridional) structure of forcing and the consequent warming. Our study provides important insights into the effects of the meridional structure of forcing on climate feedback, which is important for evaluating global climate change from different forcing agents. Significance Statement An increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration or an increase in incoming solar radiation leads to a rise in the radiative budget and consequent climate warming, which is amplified by the presence of multiple climate feedbacks. These feedbacks, from changes in surface albedo, combined effect of water vapor and the vertical lapse rate of temperature, and changes in clouds, differ between solar and CO2 forcing. Using radiative kernels, this study quantifies these individual feedbacks for an equivalent radiative change caused by an increase in CO2 or incoming solar radiation, showing how the differences arise from differences in the meridional patterns of warming. In agreement with prior studies, these differences can explain the smaller efficacy of solar forcing compared to CO2 forcing.