What Determines the Leading Mode of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Snow-Cover Interannual Variability?

Abstract

Abstract The Northern Hemisphere snow-cover (NHSC) interannual variability can serve as a crucial source of climate predictability. However, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the NHSC interannual variability and associated formation mechanism lack a thorough investigation using the latest reliable datasets. In this observationally based study, we identify the leading mode of the wintertime NHSC interannual variability and reveal the major determinants and mechanisms for forming the mode. Results show that the leading mode exhibits a hemispheric dipole pattern characterized by snow-cover anomalies in the central-eastern United States and Europe, contrary to those in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Importantly, the leading mode of TP-only snow-cover variability is essentially a regional manifestation of the dipole NHSC anomaly pattern. The wintertime hemispheric atmospheric circulation anomaly mode, that is, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), primarily determines the dipole NHSC anomaly pattern via altering snowfall and snowmelt. During a positive phase of AO, an anomalous atmospheric anticyclone over the midlatitude North Atlantic favors increased warm-air advection over the central-eastern United States and Europe, reducing the snowfall and the snow cover there. Meanwhile, the anomalously warm atmospheric thermal condition in Europe accompanied by enhanced westerly moisture flux convergence tends to heat the underlying land surface via reducing upward sensible heat flux and increasing downward longwave radiation, thereby causing increased snowmelt and decreased snow cover in northeastern Europe. Associated with the aforementioned atmospheric circulation anomalies, an anomalous atmospheric cyclone prevailing over the TP tends to cause increased southeasterly moisture flux convergence, favoring snowfall and snow increase in the TP.