Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and the Winter Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Recent Decades

Abstract

Abstract The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the winter stratospheric polar vortex intensity (PVI) is re-examined, using JRA-55 datasets and the CESM2 model. Our results show that the negative correlation between ENSO and PVI has weakened in recent decades and is no longer statistically significant after the mid-1990s. This weakening ENSO–PVI relationship after the mid-1990s is associated with wave-1 fluxes entering the stratosphere; that is, the ENSO-induced increasing wave-1 fluxes are weaker after the mid-1990s than before the mid-1990s. Except for the Pacific–North America (PNA)-like wave train, the stratospheric wave flux changes are related to ENSO-induced geopotential height changes over East Asia. The ENSO-induced tropical zonal circulation anomalies are enhanced from the central Pacific to East Asia, leading to more substantial wave flux anomalies propagating westward from the central Pacific to East Asia and a more significant high center over Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s than before the mid-1990s. This ENSO-induced high center after the mid-1990s is out of phase with the climatological center of wave 1, leading to a relatively weaker increase in wave 1. Model results show that changes in the ENSO–PVI relationship and ENSO–Asia circulation are associated with changes in ENSO-related SST combined with global mean SST. Significance Statement In this study, changes in the ENSO–polar vortex relationship and the relevant mechanisms are analyzed from the perspective of the ENSO-induced East Asia circulation. The results can help us better understand and predict variations in the stratospheric polar vortex.